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Research Projects and Contributions

Modeling the evolution of the COVID-19 epidemic in Quebec

In the past year, we rapidly developed a COVID-19 dynamic model to help policy makers in Québec with their COVID-19 response. This modeling work has been funded through grants/contracts from INSPQ, CIHR & CIRN.

Main objective. To support the COVID-19 response in Québec and Canada by using mathematical models to identify optimal 1) non-pharmaceutical interventions and 2) vaccination strategies.

Specific objectives for the next year are to:

  1. Continue informing Québec COVID-19 epidemic public health response and publish reports to inform the public on our modeling results. 
  2. Use our COVID-19 model to examine the potential impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) over the course of the epidemic. 
  3. Use our COVID-19 model to identify the most effective COVID-19 vaccination strategies/programs.

Ongoing activities. We are working closely with our collaborators at the INSPQ, and interdisciplinary and multi-provincial modeling teams through the CIRN network and a multi-provincial CIHR grant. We are continuously refining our COVID-19 model by recalibrating it regularly with the most up-to-date epidemiological data, as well as social contact data from our population-based CONNECT study.

Partners. INSPQ, CIRN, CIHR, Compute Canada

CONNECT : The study of social contacts

CONNECT (CONtact and Network Estimation to Control Transmission) is the first population-based study of social contacts in Canada. The first phase was conducted in 2018/2019 across Canada and it documented the social contacts of Canadians before the COVID-19 pandemic. Since the beginning of the pandemic, additional phases of CONNECT were conducted in Quebec to document the changes in social contacts during the pandemic: CONNECT2 (April 21- May 25), CONNECT3 (July 3-October 31, and CONNECT 4 (November 6 – in progress).

Main objective. To support the COVID-19 response in Quebec by measuring the social contacts of Quebecers.

Specific objectives are to:

  1. Measure the changes in social contacts (e.g., conversation, physical contact) of Quebecers before the pandemic and since the pandemic, stratified by socio-demographic characteristics, type of work and location of contacts (home, work, school, transport, leisure, others).
  2. Estimate the mixing matrices between individuals by age and for different locations of contacts (home, work, school, transport, leisure, others). These matrices are then integrated into our COVID-19 dynamic model.

Ongoing activities. The recruitment and data collection for the fourth phase of CONNECT is underway. We produce regular updates of the changes over time in social contacts, which are published on the INSPQ website (https://www.inspq.qc.ca/covid-19/donnees/projections). CONNECT data are also regularly integrated into our COVID-19 model.

Modeling the impact of interventions against Human Papillomavirus (HPV) related diseases

HPV vaccination in High-Income Countries (HIC)

Main objective. To estimate, using HPV-ADVISE, the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of different HPV vaccination and cervical screening strategies to reduce the burden of HPV-related diseases and health inequalities in Canada and the US.

Specific objectives are to:

  1. Use HPV-ADVISE to identify optimal HPV vaccination and cervical screening policies to achieve cervical cancer elimination in North America
  2. Use HPV-ADVSE to estimate the potential effectiveness of reducing the number of HPV vaccine doses on HPV-related outcomes in high income countries
  3. Use HPV-ADVISE to identify biases in epidemiological studies of HPV vaccination effectiveness and identify optimal study designs to improve validity and precision

Ongoing activities. We are currently addressing the 3 public health questions described above. Furthermore, we are continuously refining HPV-ADVISE by confronting the model to post-vaccination data and predictions from other models.

Partners. INSPQ, PHO, BC CDC, CDC, PHE, Program for Appropriate Technology in Health (PATH), Compute Canada

HPV vaccination in Low-and-Middle-Income Countries (LMIC)

Main objective. To estimate, using HPV-ADVISE LMIC, the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of different HPV vaccination and cervical screening strategies to reduce the burden of HPV-related diseases in LMIC, as well as identify strategies that can lead to cervical cancer elimination.

Specific objectives are to:

  1. Use HPV-ADVISE LMIC to examine the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccination strategies in different LMICs such as Tanzania, and Cuba (e.g., girls-only or gender-neutral vaccination, 1 or 2 doses, 2- or 9-valent vaccine, single or multiple age cohorts)
  2. Use HPV-ADVISE LMIC to identify optimal HPV vaccination strategies in the context of HPV vaccine supply constraints (e.g., strategies that maximize the number of cervical cancer cases prevented for a fixed amount of available doses worldwide)
  3. Use HPV-ADVISE LMIC to estimate the cost-effectiveness of different cervical cancer elimination strategies in 78 LMIC
  4. Develop an HIV/HPV transmission model based on HPV-ADVISE (HPV/HIV-ADVISE).

Ongoing activities. In collaboration with our international partners, our core efforts are currently focussed on examining the effectiveness/cost-effectiveness of different HPV vaccination strategies in LMIC in the context of vaccine supply constraints and call for action to eliminate cervical cancer. We are also working in close collaboration with the WHO and researchers/decision makers from different LMIC to refine our models and answer country-specific questions. As part of the WHO Cervical Cancer Elimination Modeling Consortium, we are using HPV-ADVISE LMIC to identify the most cost-effective vaccination and screening strategies that could lead to cervical cancer elimination. As part of the Single-dose HPV vaccine evaluation consortium, we are continuing our modeling work to guide global decision about 1-dose HPV vaccination and extended schedules (e.g., 5 years between the first and second dose). Finally, we are including HIV in HPV-ADVISE to examine the potential for cervical cancer elimination in high HIV prevalence countries.

Partners. WHO, International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC), PATH, Compute Canada